Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 22-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24

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Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 22-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24

Nifty 50 Index NSE:NIFTY

karthikss

Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 22-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24

Nifty closed at 22147(22519) and touched low & high of 21804 & 22413

Nifty gone down last week. As told last week nifty fell and broke the support provided at 22000/ 21900 and bounced back on last day above the support and settled at 22147.

RSI and stochastics levels was down last week(41% & <20% Respectively). Near to oversold zone. Can expect a come back rally next week.

Refer to detailed comments in the bottom on market and election outcome.

Nifty IT broke the Major support at 34918 /34000 last week and went upto 32919. Can be added for short rally as it fell sharply, however for medium term clear break above 38000 needed to further move up. Future of technology stocks are in high pressure due to AI as it is reflecting in US and Indian technology stocks. Especially Indian IT stocks is in a non decisive path and downtrend.

Nifty bank 47556 (48565) - Nifty bank was down inline with nifty last week. Many bank stocks are buyable zone. Canara bank, ICICI Bank can be accumulated.

Medium term support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). To continue buy on dips.

Nifty 22147- Short & medium term (Neutral)

Market need to decisively close above 22800 to move up further. Expected a short rally after last week downside. As mentioned in the past month, nifty almost reached the near term target 22819 (Fibonacci extended resistance target) and started falling ( 22819 Target- which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak/23000).

Short term support 22000/21800

Medium term Support - 21721 (Mar Low),21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart.

Long Term

Market expected range bound between 23300 ( Trend Line Resistance till May 2024) to 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024.

Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Market Awaiting for the Q4 results to take a cue.

Comments :

Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000.

Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions.

Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.

Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000.

Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank in nearing the target provided (48600). Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Continue to buy on dips.

As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.